Market Sizing for the Casey Online Case

Why market sizing matters in Casey

Most Casey numeric questions are not pure arithmetic — they are sized estimates wrapped in a business question. "What is the European EV market by 2030?" "How many flights per year does this airline operate?"

The four-step routine

1. Anchor. State the metric and the universe. Population? Households? Companies?
2. Segment. Break the universe into groups with different usage rates.
3. Multiply. Apply per-segment usage and frequency.
4. Sanity-check. Compare to a known benchmark.

Worked example

Q: Annual coffee market in Germany (cups)?

• Population ≈ 84M
• Coffee drinkers ≈ 75% → 63M people
• Average 2.5 cups per drinker per day
• 63M × 2.5 × 365 ≈ 57B cups per year

Sanity-check: roughly 700 cups per drinker per year — passes.

Casey-specific tips

• Round aggressively. Casey rewards directionally correct numbers, not 4-decimal precision.
• Type only the number. No commas, no units, unless asked.
• If a chart gives a number, use it — do not re-estimate.